For one my blog posts yesterday I called Mountain House customer service, Nitro-pak customer service, and The ReadyStore and I got the same story as Loudmouth_Mormon.
That supply of #10 cans is continuing to top dealers but is on allocation. This means there is a limited amount available and as it is produced it is divided up among those dealers.
IMHO, the allocation is due mainly to increased demand as a result of "peak oil" believers who have been purchasing heavily in the last 6 months and especially since April stories about food price increase, shortages and riots.
As the price old declines the demand will subside and lead times will go back normal, if oil goes back up the demand will likely increase and lead times will go out farther.
I think what you see in some boards and blogs is regarding #10 cans is a mix of some exaggeration for;
1) a "good story"
2) businesses who didn't get allocation and/or want to steer people to other alternative products they sell
Oregon Freeze Dry, who makes the Mountain House brand products is one of only two Freeze Dry companies in North America that have facilities that meet USDA regulations for meat and poultry(The other is Freeze Dry Foods, but they do not market their own commercial brand).
As such OFD is the only domestic supplier of complete meal (meat, veggies, etc) freeze dried food product.
However Oregon Freeze Dry has many other products they supply food processor companies (to be used in products you consume at restaurants and grocery stores, pet food etc) other than the Mountain Brand. I would guess that it could be as high 90% or more of their business being products other than Mountain House.
According to Oregon's website;
"Our thirty-two drying chambers provide over 32,000 sq. ft. of freeze drying capacity. We are the largest multi-product freeze dryer in the world."
So if they are operating millions of dollars of this equipment at output capacity for most of your business, as you should be to maximize profits, then one 10% segment of your business has a demand explosion, are you going to buy millions more in equipment overnight to satisfy that demand?
The answer will be yes, if you think that demand will continue and increase long term.
The answer will be no, or wait and see, if you feel the demand might disappear if something such as the price of oil goes down some.
|