I'm in the same boat, not doing anything that different but gaining weight. In my case, it's hibernation (seasonal affective disorder). My metabolism slows down and I have huge cravings for bad carbohydrates. It's usually January or February before I start to get back in control.
So, MHW, if you're having the same thing, trying to lose weight before Christmas isn't going to work. Wait until after the winter solstice. Resisting carbs is about the only thing I can do until then. And keeping my daily walk string alive: now 2 years, 12 days without a miss.
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