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Oh really? The public confidence in the Democratic congress is at a record low and the Democrats are prepared to nominate a woman that has higher negative ratings than anyone who has ever attempted to get elected to the presidency.
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Clinton does have some fairly high negative ratings, but still leads most of the Rep candidates in general and purple state polling. These republicans that think Clinton will a push over are just fooling themselves, for every base conservative she fires against her, there will be an equal number of base liberals she fires up for her.
The only real threat to her is coming from Giuliani, who is polling within the MOE in a lot of the purple states. Though I doubt Giuliani will win the primary, as it looks now I wouldn't be surprised if Thompson pulled out come from behind victory. Republicans seem now to be too short sighted and wanting it all now, they will nominate Thompson in the primaries knowing he will most likely get creamed in the general, instead of nominating Giuliani, Romney or McCain who stand a much better chance of winning the general.
I wouldn't be so sure that congresses low approval rating (which is nothing new btw) is just because of the democrats. A lot of republicans are frustrated with their people in congress too. Also congresses approval rating is about the same as the presidents, for what its worth.
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The arrogance of power, along with a hugely unpopular war, will have them lose further. They will have a far more difficult time running as the party of "morals" this time around as well. Plus they have 22 seats to hold in the Senate (versus 12 for the Democrats) and if the 'other' Warner runs in Virginia they'll probably lose that seat. [/b]
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The 2008 Senate race looks to be pretty uninteresting. Only 6 races appear to be somewhat interesting. Republicans Coleman (MN) and Sununu (NH) seem weak. Democrats Lautenberg (NJ) and Johnson (SD). Though the two republicans seem to be in weaker positions then the two democrats.
The really interesting races will be in CO and WA, both with retiring senators, and both having recent histories of electing democrats. That and the CO reps seem particularly weak after loosing what should have been an easy house and senate seat in 2004. I agree with you that if Warner runs in VA, thats will most likely be democrat pickup too.
ID will have a special election in 2008, but that will be nothing to worry about. ID could run Big Bird as a republican and he would win by 30 points.
I think you really hit on the main point though, the Iraq war. I think that will still be the main issue in 08. If it continues to go poorly, the republicans are in more huge losses, or you will see a lot more coming out against it. If the war does start turning around it could work in their favor, I just don't see that happening though.
With all that being said though, I hope the republicans do win. I really think both parties are terrible, but the repblicans are at least the lesser of the two evils, until we can get Badnarik elected.